Michigan (1) vs Uconn (2)

Not much daylight here, but I’m still siding with the Metis number. Michigan grades out as the better version of UConn on both ends — No. 1 defense (89 adjD, 44.7% opp eFG) versus UConn’s still-very-good No. 11, and a more efficient offense (126.6 vs 122) that actually gets to the line (0.377 FTR vs a brutal 0.300).

UConn wants to grind at a 322nd-ranked tempo, but Michigan is 22nd and far more comfortable dictating pace, which matters when one team is just flat-out better. The simulations aren’t subtle either — one model says Michigan by 9, the other by 5.5 — and that split basically centers right on 7–8. Vegas hanging 6.5 feels like a slight tax on UConn’s brand; Metis calling it -7.5 is just trusting the numbers over the logo.