Houston (2) vs Idaho (15)

Vegas is hanging a huge number mostly because Houston’s defense is terrifying — 91.4 adjusted efficiency (5th) and a 46.6% opponent eFG% (17th) — but the Cougars don’t exactly sprint away from people. They play at a glacial 63.3 tempo (352nd) and almost never get to the line (0.269 FT rate, 352nd), which makes it harder to stretch margins into the mid-20s.

Idaho is not good — 108.8 offensive efficiency (176th) with a shaky 1.11 assist-to-turnover ratio — but they do two things that quietly keep games from turning into total avalanches: they rebound defensively at an elite 78.2% (4th) and take nearly half their shots from three (46.8% rate). That combination tends to create variance and limit second-chance blowouts, which is why most simulations land around 20. Metis at -21.5 is the sharper number here.