Gonzaga (3) vs Kennesaw St (14)

Vegas hanging -20.5 here feels like they’re pricing in a full demolition, but the underlying numbers say this is more like a controlled win. Gonzaga’s offense is good (122 adjO, 29th) but not nuclear, and they don’t bomb threes (340th in 3pt rate) or live at the line (281st in FT rate), which limits margin-building runs. Meanwhile Kennesaw isn’t completely hopeless — top-50 in opponent eFG% (48.5) and 40th in offensive rebounding, so they can at least ugly this up and steal extra possessions.

Metis at -17.5 lines up cleanly with the sims (17.1, 17.8), and that gap matters when Gonzaga isn’t built to run teams off the floor anymore. The Zags will win, but laying 20+ with a team that shoots 69.9% from the line and plays at a middling tempo is asking for a backdoor sweat you don’t need.