Vanderbilt (5) vs McNeese (12)

Not much daylight here. Vegas says Vanderbilt -11.5 and the sims spit out 10.8 and 11.4 — that’s basically everyone staring at the same spreadsheet and nodding. The matchup also supports it: Vanderbilt’s offense is elite (126.8 KenPom efficiency, 7th nationally) against a good but not terrifying McNeese defense (101.8, 49th).

McNeese’s calling card is forcing turnovers (23.9%, No. 1 in the country), but Vanderbilt protects the ball with a 1.724 assist-to-turnover ratio (13th) and shoots 79.3% from the line, which is how favorites quietly stretch games late. And if McNeese is relying on a 31.6% three-point attack (299th) while giving up offensive boards on the other end (312th in defensive rebounding), that’s usually how a plucky underdog hangs around for 25 minutes and then loses by 12.